THE PROBLEM OF ENERGY

HANS MARK

THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING

APRIL 30, 2004

 

I. Worldwide Non-Renewable Energy Resources:
     (One QUAD is 1015 British Thermal Units or 2.931 x 1011 kilowatthours)

Fossil Fuels
Oil (Known) 15,500 QUADS
Gas (Known)16,000 QUADS
Oil and Gas (Probable unexploited Resources)63,000 QUADS
Coal (Known)157,500 QUADS

Nuclear Fuel
Uranium 94,500 QUADS
Uranium (Breeder Reactors) =10 8 QUADS

Worldwide Renewable Energy Resource:

The Sun is the source of all renewable energy, hydro, wind, solar heating and cooling and electrical:
Solar Radiation Delivered to Entire Land Mass 780,000 QUADS/year
Solar Radiation on a 100 square kilometer area 0.557 QUADS/year


Worldwide Energy Consumption:
Total World Energy Consumption 600 QUADS/year
U.S. Energy Consumption 110 QUADS/year
      

   The important conclusion to be drawn from this table is that there are significant energy resources available for the remainder of this century given the current rate of energy consumption. The problem is that given estimated economic growth in the next two decades, the most easily available known resources, oil and gas, may become unavailable or very expensive by the middle of the 21st century. All the other resources listed have more serious environmental and economic problems that make their recovery and employment more difficult.

 
II. Geographic Distribution of Oil and Gas
               (Known Resources)
Oil: 15,500 QUADSGas: 16,000 QUADS
Saudi Arabia 26.2%Russia 28.3%
Iraq 11.5%Iran 15.5%
Iran 9.9%Qatar 6.6%
Kuwait 9.7% Saudi Arabia 3.6%
United Arab Emirates 6.3%United Arab Emirates 3.4%
Russia 5.4%Algeria 2.6%
Venezuela 5.0%Venezuela 2.5%
Libya 3.0%Indonesia 2.5%
Nigeria 2.9%Nigeria 2.1%
Mexico 2.2%Iraq 1.9%
United States 2.2%United States 2.9%
All others: 15.7%All others: 28.1%

     The most important conclusions to be drawn from this table are that five nations, all in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have almost two thirds of the known reserves in their territories (63.6%), that Russia is the "Saudi Arabia" of natural gas with 28.3% of the resource and that 31% of known natural gas is also located in the Middle East in Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. The near term problem with oil and gas lies in the political instability of the region where much of the resource is located. 

III. U.S. Energy Production. Imports and Consumption (1999)
                (QUADS per year) 

Primary Production (Quadrillion Btu)

Petroleum15.06
Natural Gas 19.20
Coal 23.15
Nuclear Power 7.74
Renewable Energy 6.69
Other 1.66
    Total Primary Production73.50

Net Imports (Quadrillion Btu)
Petroleum (including SPR)21.19
Natuural Gas3.50
Coal/Other (-indicates export) -0.96
Total Net Imports23.73
Total Production and Imports97.23
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
Petroleum Products 38.25
Natural Gas 22.57
Coal21.56
Nuclear Power 7.74
Renewable Energy 6.70
Other 0.28
Total Consumption97.10
Discrepancy0.13
 
  • Fifty five percent of petroleum is imported.
  • The U.S. is self sufficient in coal and actually exports four percent of our production.
  • The great majority of renewable energy comes from hydro-electric source;
  • Eighty five percent of U.S. energy comes from fossil fuels.
 
U.S. Energy Consumption by Sector (1999) (QUADS per year)
Residential (19.6%)Industrial (36.6%)
Distillate Fuel0.81Distillate Fuel1.08
Kerosene 0.11Liquefied Petroleum Gas2.26
Liquefied Petroleum Gas 0.53Petrochemical Feedstock1.31
       Petroleum Subtotal 1.46Residual Fuel0.25
Natural Gas 4.86Motor Gasoline0.15
Coal 0.04Other Petroleum4.35
Renewable Energy 0.40    Petroleum Subtotal9.40
Electricity 3.91Natural Gas9.95
    Delivered Energy 10.67Metallurgical Coal0.75
Electricity Related Losses 8.44Steam Coal1.69
Total 19.10Net Coal Coke Imports0.06
    Coal Subtotal2.50
Renewable Energy2.29
Electricity3.61
    Delivered Energy27.75
Electricity Related Losses7.80
Total35.54
   
Commercial (16.3%)Transportation (27.4%)
Distillate Fuel   0.42Distillate Fuel   5.16
Residual Fuel   0.09Jet Fuel 15.86
Kerosene   0.03Motor Gasoline 15.86
Liquefied Petroleum Gas   0.09Residual Fuel   0.93
Motor Gasoline   0.03Liquefied Petroleum Gas   0.02
    Petroleum Subtotal   0.65Other Petroleum   0.22
Natural Gas   3.14     Petroleum Subtotal 25.65
Coal   0.07Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas   0.75
Renewable Energy   0.08Compressed Natural Gas   0.02
Electricity   3.77Renewable Energy (E85)   0.01
   Delivered Energy   7.70Liquid Hydrogen   0.00
Electricity Related Losses   8.13Electricity   0.06
Total 15.84   Delivered Energy 26.49
Electricity Related Losses   0.13
Total26.61
GRAND TOTAL 97.10
  • Sixty percent of transportation energy is devoted to automobiles. 
  • The total U.S. electrical energy consumed per year is 36 Quads. This number includes the neergy losses occurring in transmission and voltage conversion.
IV. Nuclear Energy  

     There are now 439 commercial nuclear power reactors operating in 31 countries with a total annual electrical production of 11 QUADS electrical (about 25 QUADS nuclear) or about 16% of all the electrical energy in the world. The bulk of these nuclear reactors are located in the "industrial" countries which are defined as having more than 30% of their energy consumption in the industrial sector. The table below shows the distribution of the bulk of the electrical generating capacity generated by nuclear fuels.

Country Total Electrical NuclearPercent
Generating Capacity Generating Capacity
(QUADS per year)(Quads per year)
United States 35.97.1920%
Canada 5.460.6612%
Australia 2.010.042%
OECD Europe 30.3010.3034%
Japan 9.602.7829%
United Kingdom 3.560.8925%
South Korea 2.600.9938%
Totals 89.43 22.9 25.6%

     The total fuel used for generating electrical energy amounts to 120 QUADS so that the nations in the table account for about 75% of the electrical energy production in the world and almost all of the nuclear produced electrical energy.

     The most significant data shown in this table is that Europe (the OECD, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development with more than twenty nations as members), Japan, the United Kingdom and South Korea all have a higher percentage of nuclear reactor generating capacity than the United States. Nuclear energy may grow rapidly in the future, not because fossil fuels will become unavailable, but because of concern over greenhouse gases emitted by the burning of fossil fuels. The "problem" of nuclear residue disposal can be solved provided that the world's political leadership understands the technology and persuades the public that it is safe. With respect to reactor safety, the industry in Western countries is among those that are most competently managed and safe. The real problem with nuclear reactors is that they produce plutonium, which when extracted from the fuel elements, can be used to make nuclear explosives.

 

V. Solar Energy

     Solar Radiation striking an area of about 105 square kilometers could supply the entire world requirement of 600 QUADS per year. This is a square area of territory about 316 km (200 miles) on each side or an area of the size of the state of Arkansas assuming 100% efficient conversion of the Sun's energy.

     A better way of looking at this is to realize that the major advantage of solar energy is that it is distributed. The disadvantage, conversely, is that the solar energy density is low and therefore not well suited for central power generation. On the average, the sun delivers about 200 watts per square meter taking into account weather and day/night variations. A hundred square meter solar array would collect 20 kilowatts. If converted at 10% efficiency such a system could deliver 2 kilowatts to substantially supplement a house that might average a power consumption of 5 to 10 kilowatts. Solar power used in this way could significantly supplement other sources of energy provided the installation costs are reasonable. Two kilowatts per year delivered to a billion houses would amount to approximately 60 QUADS per year, or 10% of the world's current annual energy requirement.